November 2024: EoY boost curtails industrial contraction

Key findings

  • The Australian Industry Index® improved in November but continued to point towards contractionary conditions.
  • The activity, employment and new orders indicators all strengthened but remain in moderate contraction.
  • This was driven by a very strong end-of-year improvement reported by construction and business services.
  • The PMI manufacturing was steady but remains in contraction, with machinery and chemicals improving slightly.
  • The wages indicator continued to ease on the back of lower wages growth, but input price growth remains
  • In trend terms, the Aii has been strengthening since August, suggesting a modest improvement in industrial business conditions this financial year.

The contractionary conditions in the Ai Group Australian Industry Index® eased in November 2024, lifting 17.9 points to -10.8 points (seasonally adjusted).

Economic Intelligence newsletter

November 2024

In the November edition of Economic Intelligence we cover:

  • Measuring migrants’ contribution to the Australian labour market: Our research note explores the roles and impacts of migrants in the Australian labour market, including their occupational and industry distribution, qualification profiles, and gender-based employment outcomes.
  • Government stimulus obscures increasing weakness in private sector labour market: Despite weak economic conditions, the Australian labour market remains resilient due to significant government stimulus in the non-market sector, particularly in healthcare and social services.
  • Tracking Australian industry: Slowest economic growth since early-1990s; headline CPI fell, underlying inflation still high; investment to fall further due to weak conditions; market sector growth anaemic; household spending improved in the Q3 2024 after two years; real labour costs surge due to tight market and high wage growth.
  • Q&A with AustralianSuper: The Investment Team at AustralianSuper share insights on the global investment markets, interest rates and the influence of the recent US election.
  • Economic Forecasts: RBA forecasts Australian growth will pick up in 2025, while underlying inflation is expected to fall back into target in early 2025 and wage growth will decline steadily throughout 2026.

Detailed Index Data

Our reports and time series data for the Ai Group Australian Industry Index® are available free of charge to Ai Group members at any time via email from our economics research team economics@aigroup.com.au. Our data are available to non-members on an annual subscription basis or a one-off purchase. Our data subscribers receive the report and time series data for the activity index, sector and selected states via email each month.

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