Steeper contraction of consumer-facing industries

The Ai Group Australian Industry Index® fell in November 2023, dropping 12.5 points to -22.4 points (seasonally adjusted). This indicates strongly contractionary conditions. The index has indicated contraction for the last nineteen months.

Key findings for November 2023:

• The Australian Industry Index® sank deeper into contraction in November on the back of falling demand. 
• The activity/sales, new orders and input volumes indicators all materially fell in the month. The employment indicator increased marginally.
• November is the lowest Aii reading since June 2020. On a trend basis, all four Aii activity indicators currently point to contractionary conditions.   
• Upstream manufacturers reported an easing in the rate of contraction, but consumer-facing industries (food and construction) posted steeper declines.
• November saw a modest increase in input costs, but a decline in sales price and average wage indicators.

Innes Willox, Chief Executive of the national employer association Ai Group said: "Ai Group's Australian Industry Index® for November highlights that Australia's industrial sectors are being affected by the pressures on consumers due to higher inflation and interest rates. Two large industries – the food, beverages & textiles, clothing group and construction – recorded significant declines in November as businesses reported sharp falls in sales. The headline Aii fell to its lowest reading since the pandemic lockdowns of winter 2020, with industry reporting an intensification of pressures in the rundown to Christmas. With the economy showing signs of a more rapid slowdown and wage and input costs pressures continuing, it is becoming increasingly challenging for policymakers to reduce inflation while avoiding a hard landing for the economy," Mr Willox said.

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The Ai Group Australian Industry Index® is a monthly index of business activity in the Australian industrial ecosystem. It includes the manufacturing, construction, engineering, technology and business services sectors, which together account for approximately 36% of the Australian economy. It reports on a -100 to 100 scale. Values below 0 indicate contraction, and above 0 indicate expansion. The distance from 0 indicates the strength: 20 is expanding faster than 10.

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Tony Melville – 0419 190 347

About the Ai Group Australian Industry Index®
The Ai Group Australian Industry Index® is a monthly index that measures changes in activity in Australia’s industrial sectors. It provides diffusion indices which measure rates of changes in the level of industrial activity – expansion, stability, or contraction. A positive reading indicates the activity is expanding; negative indicates contraction. The distance from 0 indicates the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Australian Industry Index is based on monthly surveys from a national sample of Australian businesses. It uses ANZSIC industry codes for classifying sectors, and weights survey results using ABS data on gross value added by sector. Seasonal adjustment and trend calculations follow ABS methodology. For the detailed methodology, click here.

When referring to the Ai Group Australian Industry Index® the source should be attributed as “Australian Industry Group”.