The performance of investment markets has again been dominated by resilient economic growth and lingering inflation. The US Consumer Price Index – a key indicator that helps measure inflation – reported figures in recent months that were higher than expected. As a result, there was a correction in markets, as investors re-priced their expectations for global interest rates and reassessed the path forward for the easing cycle. The market had been optimistic that we would see a handful of interest rate cuts in 2024. Following this recent correction, the current pricing in the market reflects an expectation for fewer rate cuts this calendar year.
Global equity prices were impacted in April, as the market priced in a potentially higher-for-longer interest rate scenario. While the sell-off was relatively broad, its effect was felt more in US-based stocks and the technology sector before prices stabilised. Despite this recent correction in listed shares, the asset class has performed particularly well over the past twelve months. Fixed income assets have faced some challenges in this recent environment, as the prospect of fewer rate cuts in 2024 has pushed bond yields higher. Meanwhile, unlisted assets, like private equity, credit and real assets, provided some ballast to investment portfolios in April, with more modest and stable returns over the short term.
Although there are a number of macroeconomic factors to consider – inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics are just a few – global growth appears poised to remain resilient. Still, it will be important to monitor the impact of factors like fiscal policy and consumer spending on the economy, as they trend towards more normalised levels over time. Our focus remains on central banks’ efforts to curb inflation, the strength and duration of the current market cycle, and new investment opportunities with the potential to generate long-term value for members.
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