The International Monetary Fund (IMF) offers the most recent forecast for the global economy in its April World Economic Outlook Update. Over the next two years it expects:
- Global GDP growth will be steady, projected to maintain 3.2% in 2024 and 2025. The 2024 forecast has been upgraded by 0.1%, based on resilience in the US and several large economies, as well as fiscal support in China. However, the 2024 and 2025 growth predictions are below the historical average of 3.8% due to excessive debt, sluggish productivity, and tight monetary policy.
- GDP growth in Australia is projected to slow to 1.5% in 2024 before recovering to 2.0% in in 2025. The forecast for 2024 is slightly improved from that in the previous October 2023 outlook (1.4%). Still, it is well below Australia’s long-term growth rate, and will be the slowest year since the recession of the early 1990s. High interest rates and cost of living pressures are expected to reduce household expenditure over the year.
- Global headline inflation is expected to decline from 6.8% to 5.9% in 2024, and ease back towards 4.5% across 2025. The forecast for 2024 remains unchanged from January 2024. Advanced economies are predicted to see faster disinflation than emerging markets and developing economies. The factors behind the easing in inflation vary by nation, but typically include tighter monetary policy, softening labour markets, and/or energy price falls.
- As global inflation eased from its mid-2022 peak, economic activity has grown slowly but steadily. On the downside, new price spikes stemming from geopolitical tensions and divergence in disinflation risks currency movements that could put financial markets under pressure.
IMF World Economic Outlook Update, selected countries (April 2024)
|
|
|
2023
|
2024
|
2025
|
|
Real GDP growth, %
|
World
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
3.2
|
|
|
United States
|
2.5
|
2.7
|
1.9
|
|
|
Euro area
|
0.4
|
0.8
|
1.5
|
|
|
China
|
5.2
|
4.6
|
4.1
|
|
|
Australia
|
2.1
|
1.5
|
2.0
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Headline Inflation, %
|
World
|
6.8
|
5.9
|
4.5
|
|
|
Advanced Economies
|
4.6
|
2.6
|
2.0
|
|
|
Emerging markets and developing economies
|
8.3
|
8.3
|
6.2
|
