The International Monetary Fund (IMF) offers most recent forecast update for the global economy in its April report on World Economic Outlook Update – A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts. Over the next two years it expects:
- Global GDP growth forecast downgraded: World GDP growth will slow to 2.8% in 2025 before recovering back to 3.0% in 2026. The 2025 forecast is a significant downgrade from the 3.3% estimate in January, reflecting the expected impact of trade and economic disruptions associated with US tariffs.
- OECD economies the laggards: The decline in global forecasts is primarily due to advanced economies, which won't see growth improvement until 2026, with several notable downward revisions. In the United States, the growth forecast has been cut from 2.7% to 1.8% in 2025 due to policy uncertainty, trade tensions, and slower consumption growth.
- Global headline inflation is projected to decrease more slowly than initially expected. The inflation forecasts for the UK and the US have been revised upward by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, due to persistent service sector price dynamics, core goods price growth, and recent tariffs in the US, and regulated price changes in the UK, while the euro area's forecast remains unchanged.
- Australia's growth is forecast as 1.6% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. This is a material downgrade from the 2.1% forecast issued in January, reflecting both the direct and indirect impacts on Australia from US tariffs. Headline inflation is expected to decrease to 2.5% in 2025, then rise to 3.5% in 2026.
IMF World Economic Outlook Update, selected countries (April 2025)
|
|
|
2024 actual
|
2025 forecast
|
2026 forecast
|
|
Real GDP growth, %
|
World
|
3.3
|
2.8
|
3.0
|
|
|
Advanced economies
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
|
|
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
|
4.3
|
3.7
|
3.9
|
|
|
Australia
|
1.0
|
1.6
|
2.1
|
| |
United States |
2.8 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
|
|
Euro Area
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
1.2
|
| |
China |
5.0 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Commodity prices, % |
Oil |
-1.8 |
-15.5 |
-6.8 |
| |
Nonfuel |
3.7 |
4.4 |
0.2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Consumer Prices, %
|
World
|
5.7
|
4.3
|
3.6
|
|
|
Advanced Economies
|
2.6
|
2.5
|
2.2
|
| |
Emerging markets and developing economies |
7.7 |
5.5 |
4.6 |
|
|
Australia
|
3.2
|
2.5
|
3.5
|
