The latest quarterly data released by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research indicate that commencement numbers and cancellation numbers have been heading in the wrong direction.
Over the quarter ending September 2022, commencements decreased by 41.3% compared with the September quarter from the previous year. This decline occurred for both trade occupations (down by 38.1%) and non-trade occupations (down by 43.6%).
At the same time that commencements have decreased, cancellations and withdrawals have increased, up 28.1% compared to the previous September quarter. Most of these have been in non-trade occupations, up by 43.5%. Cancellations and withdrawals in trade occupations rose by 14.3%.
Source: NCVER, National Apprentice and Trainee collection
Some of the trade occupations with higher cancellation rates include electrotechnology and telecommunications trades workers (up by 24.4%) and automotive and engineering trades workers (up by 10.1%). For non-trade occupations, cancellations for clerical and administrative workers increased by 60.6% and for community and personal services workers increased by 56%.
On the plus side, completions increased by 33.4% compared to the previous September quarter. Trade completions were up by 46.6% and non-trades by 20.8%.
All of these results have been skewed by events in the past few years. The onset of Covid in 2020 saw big drops in numbers, which were arrested by substantial government employment subsidies. These subsidies have now reverted to lower levels, but at the same time the acute labour and skills shortages the economy is experiencing are having an impact. Hopefully we will revert to normal programming over the coming months.
